StevenWarRan Research: June 2000, BusinessWorld

A showdown between National Security Adviser Alexander P. Aguirre and Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) governor Nur Misuari is expected to take place in Kuala Lumpur today.

Both will try to convince the powerful Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) that neither the government nor Moro rebels have violated the terms of their 1996 peace agreement.

Press Secretary Ricardo V. Puno, Jr. said Mr. Aguirre will appear before the OIC's Committee of Six today to defend the government against Mr. Misuari's allegations that it did not comply with the terms of its September 1996 peace pact with the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF).

"The Philippines and the MNLF have been invited by the Committee of Six. They will be appearing (today). The MNLF, I guess, to present its arguments, and the government to rebut whatever is presented as criticism of the Philippine government in terms of the compliance with the peace agreement," Mr. Puno
said.

He also denied reports that OIC is preparing a draft statement rebuking the Philippine government for not keeping its end of the bargain. The draft will reportedly be made public during the 27th OIC Foreign Ministers meeting in Kuala Lumpur. "As far as Secretary Aguirre knows, there's no such rebuke," Mr. Puno
added.

Even President Joseph Estrada expressed optimism OIC will listen to Mr. Aguire. "I think the OIC will sustain the position of the government," he told reporters yesterday.

Early this month, Mr. Misuari called on some countries that form the 56-member OIC to complain about the Philippine government's alleged violation of the peace agreement, including the lack of funds allotted to ARMM.

The OIC's Committee of Six has been tasked to monitor both the Philippine government and the MNLF's compliance with the peace agreement, which partly ended over two decades of Moro insurgency in Mindanao.

Mr. Puno added that Mr. Aguirre also confirmed that Abu Sayyaf rebels have been "condemned" by OIC for its abduction of hostages, including 21 mostly foreign nationals.

He also said Mr. Aguirre told him that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) has not been formally invited to attend the OIC meeting. MILF leaders are, however, in Kuala Lumpur to "lobby" among OIC members so it can get "observer" status, just like the MNLF.

Meanwhile, Mr. Puno said the government and the MILF continue to exchange drafts of the proposed interim agreement that would pave the way for the extension of the June 30 deadline for a peace agreement to be forged.

He said the government peace panel is still waiting for MILF's response to the President's condition for extension: the dropping of its secessionist demand.

"We are hoping that there will be some answer between now and Friday. But we will have to see what happens between now and then to determine whether a recommendation for some sort of postponement can be made. We have to see how the situation is at that time," Mr. Puno added.

Also at the Palace, Mr. Puno said the government does not think the Abu Sayyaf is serious with its new set of demands for the release of hostages on Basilan island.

He also said the Abu Sayyaf should start talking about the process of the release, instead of imposing new conditions such as requiring all women to wear veils and banning Christmas parties in Sulu schools.

"I do not know if these are even serious demands or whether just simply meant to lighten the atmosphere somewhat. But I do know these are some things that we may have to discuss only to tell them that we don't think these are serious matters for discussion. We want to go back to the issue of the release of the hostages," he added.

Also yesterday, MILF said it will not sign an interim agreement with the government if it insists on limiting talks only to autonomy as a political solution to the Moro problem.

MILF committee on cessation of hostilities chairman Eid Kabalu said MILF will never abandon its secessionist demand.

"The MILF will not sign any document that would limit the rights of the Bangsamoro in their quest for self-determination," Mr. Kabalu toldBusinessWorld in a telephone interview.

"The MILF will not be enticed by the political autonomy that has been accepted by the MNLF in 1996 kasi wala namang nangyayari (because nothing's been happening)," he added.

As this developed, party-list solon Loretta Ann P. Rosales asked Congress to check into the status of more than 380,000 Mindanao residents displaced by conflict.

In House Resolution No. 1594, the Akbayan sectoral party representive asked several House committees to look into the problem of the evacuees, to ensure the protection of their rights.

"I am afraid the rights of the internally displaced have been violated in a number of ways," she told reporters.

Ms. Rosales noted that evacuation facilities for displaced residents may be inadequate.

Meanwhile, in a forum, Akbayan national chairman Walden Bello said that to end the conflict in Mindanao, the government must address the "long-standing and historical demands of the Muslims," who have been marginalized.

"Unless the government is willing to entertain the various options for a nation state and the long-standing issues are addressed, then this conflict will go nowhere," Mr. Bello said told a forum at Abuelo's Restaurant in Quezon City.
He noted local Muslims or Moros have been steadily marginalized from the control of the political and economic life in Mindanao.

In the same forum, Mr. Rosales noted discrepancies in government policies with regards to money for Mindanao.

The four provinces in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao is getting only 9.7 million Philippine pesos (US$225,776 at PhP42.963=US$1) or 1.8% of the government budget this year, while 63.8% of its residents are poor.

Metro Manila's poor is 9.6%, and yet it is getting PhP40 million ($931,034) or a 7.7% share in this year's budget, she added. -- L. M. T. Lugo, R. L. Villanueva, C. R. A. Garcia and M. C. Payumo

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No timetable for Mindanao conflict, military chief says

Codes: Nd N7 K3
Author: Ruffy L. Villanueva
Source: Business World-Internet edition 
Date Published: 06/28/00
Starting Page:

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) remains uncertain as to when the conflict between the government and Moro rebels will end, as businesses complain of "opportunity losses" due to the prevailing security problem in parts of Central Mindanao that has put the entire island in bad light. 

In a forum at Hotel Intercontinental Manila in Makati City in central Metropolitan Manila, AFP chief-of-staff Gen. Angelo T. Reyes admitted yesterday he could not say when the conflict will end, adding that military operations are only a part of the government's long-term solution to the Mindanao conflict. 

"I cannot offer you a timetable on when we can solve the situation in Mindanao...(But) I'd like to assure you that we are as impatient as you are in solving this problem," Mr. Reyes told businessmen in the forum sponsored by the Makati Business Club (MBC). 

"This is a political problem that is being addressed not only by the military, but also by our political leaders as well," he stressed. 

Aside from the military aspect, the AFP chief said the government is also trying to lay out economic and political solutions to the Bangsamoro (Moro nation) problem. 

Bangsamoro is a term used by adherents of the establishment of an independent Islamic state in Mindanao to describe ethnic Moro peoples who will form part of such a country. 

Moro rebels claim they are fighting for the rights of the Bangsamoro for self-determination after half a century of neglect by the National Government that has left many Moro communities some of the most impoverished nationwide. 

But Mr. Reyes said the Estrada administration is aware of past faults and that, in fact, Mindanao now actually receives a larger financial allocation for development projects compared to other regions in the country. 

Still, MBC executive director Guillermo M. Luz said the security situation in Mindanao is costing businesses immeasurable "opportunity losses." But he noted that businesses are aware of the effort being exerted by the National Government to solve the problem. 

"We don't actually have estimates on how much businesses are losing in monetary terms because it's more on opportunity losses. And opportunity losses are hard to measure...There's no way to quantify that, but definitely, there's an impact," Mr. Luz told BusinessWorld in an interview. 

"I guess the National Government...they're making an effort to give economic and political solutions. And we can now see more clearly the direction being taken by the government -- there are political and economic programs for Mindanao where they are receiving support and offers from the private sector and civil societies," he noted.

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Uncertainty ahead in Philippine-Australian trade war

Codes:
Author: EARL WARREN B. CASTILLO
Source: Business World-Internet edition 
Date Published: 06/28/00
Starting Page:

Since the early 1990s, the country has struggled to penetrate Australia's tropical fruit market, which remains protected by stringent and "restrictive" quarantine regulations. 

Early this year, the Department of Agriculture (DA) retaliated by restricting the entry of Australia's biggest farm export product:live cattle. 

Latest trade figures show the policy had some success for the plight of Philippine mangoes, bananas and pineapples, but the local cattle industry ended up getting the raw end of the deal. 

Last February, Agriculture Secretary Edgardo J. Angara boldly announced a major policy declaration: the Department of Agriculture (DA) will start discouraging local farm producers from importing agricultural commodities, particularly cattle, from Australia. 

A DOSE OF ITS OWN MEDICINE

He said the Philippines needed to give Australia a dose of its own medicine for restricting the entry of the country's three major fruit exports: mango, banana and pineapple.

The DA accused Australia of refusing to lift restrictions on these fruits, of which the country had been lobbying to be removed as early as 1991. The DA submitted export applications for mangoes in 1991 and for banana and pineapple in 1996.

Nine years after, Australia approved the application to export only fresh mango last March, while the other applications are still pending approval.

The government is now preparing to file a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against Australia's alleged unfair trade practices.

The WTO is an international body set up to supervise and liberalize world trade. It is the successor of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, a set of multilateral trade agreements that seeks to remove and scale down import duties among contracting nations.

The DA asked Australia to carry out simultaneous pest risk analysis (PRA) studies for banana and pineapple to facilitate their entry. But Australia rejected the request, claiming it lacks the necessary technical resources to conduct the test.

A PRA (or import risk assessment) would determine the feasibility of importing a new commodity. It allows the importing country to assess the state of pests and diseases affecting a particular product.

As a result, Mr. Angara said the DA will implement a "reciprocity" scheme to pressure Australia to open up its market to the banana and pineapple.

Essentially, this involves importing more from other countries that
patronize local farm export winners. With cattle imports comprising the bulk of agricultural imports from Australia, the DA encouraged local cattle raisers last February to start sourcing live cattle from other markets in retaliation to Australia's refusal to open up its market to Philippine banana and pineapple.

The country is largely dependent on Australia as source for feeder stock cattle, which are imported, fattened and slaughtered after 60 to 90 days and sold in wet markets as beef.

The DA claimed Australia's protectionist policies tilted the trade balance to the disadvantage of the Philippines.

Last year alone, trade figures show Australia sold $400 million in agricultural commodities to the country, while it bought less than $23 million worth of Philippine farm products.

SACRIFICIAL LAMB

Unfortunately, in carrying out its policy of "reciprocity," the DA had effectively offered up the cattle industry as a sacrificial lamb that would ensure victory in its bid to pressure Australia into granting Philippine demands.

Figures from the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) indicate that, as of June 16, Philippine cattle imports have reached only 76,642 head, down by 43% from last year's 134,899 head from January to June 30.

Mr. Angara directed BAI to prepare a guideline that will govern a five-year cattle import reduction for Australia by 20% annually starting this year.

Some cattle raisers originally proposed a reduction rate of only 15%. Since the Philippines imported about 250,000 head from Australia last year, this means local cattle raisers will effectively reduce the total volume this year to 200,000 head.

While the Cattle Feedlot Association of the Philippines (CFAP) initially supported Mr. Angara's policy of reciprocity, CFAP members are now concerned over the extended farm impasse which will is already hurting the cattle industry.

Nicanor P. Padilla, president of NPP Livestock Developers, Inc., said some raisers are losing due to high overhead expenditures and fixed contracts that could not be financed due to low sales.

Industry leaders peg the value feeder stock cattle ready for slaughter at around 18,000 Philippine pesos to PhP20,000 per animal ($418.97 to $465.52 at PhP42.963=$1) with a 400-kilogram weight.

Raisers usually fatten feeder stock for 60 to 90 days upon arrival before slaughtering. With these figures, rough estimates will show that as of this month, cattle raisers may have lost between PhP1.048 billion and PhP1.165 billion ($0.024 billion to $0.027 billion in potential earnings due to the 43%
drop in their import volumes over last year's first semester volume -- first-half volumes this year minus same period last year multiplied by gross farm-gate earnings per head at PhP18,000 to PhP20,000.

Big cattle raisers, like Dealco Farms, Inc., noted they easily lose an equivalent of PhP1 million ($0.023 million) a day in paying for demurrage of ships which are unable to immediately leave Australia from delays in the issuance of their permits. Demurrage charges represent payments for overstaying ships or shipments.

BEEF SHORTFALL, HIGHER PRICES

With the expected decline in cattle imports, consumers can soon expect a shortfall that could hike prices.

Small-scale feedlot operator Johnny A. Menchaca said a further increase in prices might be noted when cattle raisers start rushing to sell at high farm gate prices.

"I believe local cattle raisers will see a short-term increase in their farm-gate prices once the glut of animals being sold by the Mindanao refugees is consumed by the market," Mr. Menchaca said.

"In the rush to avail of the increased farm-gate price and the absence of the import buffer stocks, even productive breeder stocks will be liquidated, given the tight liquidity situation," he added.

Mr. Padilla estimated farm-gate prices next month will initially surge by close to 10% from the current levels of between PhP53 to PhP55 per kilogram (kg) to PhP60/kg.

Demand for beef usually peaks in July following the start of the school year.
"For now, prices are still stable but as people sell off their inventories, you may already see an increase in coming months like July," he said.

At the wet market, cattle raisers project prices to surge by close to 10% from PhP140/kg to about PhP150/kg if the trade row continues through the rest of the year.

The 250,000-head volume which cattle raisers brought in last year accounts for about 50% of the country's total annual inventory requirement of 500,000-550,000 head for beef requirements.

CFAP president Martin M. Gomez said the Philippines remains incapable of solely relying on local cattle production due to the inherent lack of animals for breeding and production.

"The BAI says we need a herd of five to six million head to be able to satisfy our yearly requirement of 550,000 head. But we only have 2.5 million head, according to the BAI," Mr. Gomez said.

To be continued

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June 1, 2000, BusinessWorld, Calling a Spade...: Once bitten, twice shy, by Solita Collas-Monsod,

I have a lot of problems with regard to the "solving" of the bombing incidents in MetroManila. Not necessarily in the order of their importance, they are the following:

Number one is the number of people who were supposedly involved. Based on the number of arrests, there were twenty-six of them. Now anyone knows that the probability of a secret getting out increases practically with the number of people who are "in" on the secret. Yet, if the PNP is to be believed, these twenty-six men were able to keep their activities undetected by PNP intelligence.

Conceivably, it could be done, if they were scattered all over MetroManila and met in different places. But these twenty-six were all residing in a known Muslim community in the Taguig area. Just stop to think about it. Given the Mindanao situation, with problems from both the MILF and the Abu Sayyaf, it is inconceivable that all possible places where Muslims tend to congregate would not be under intense surveillance by either the military or the police or both.

And with at least twenty-six people involved in a plot, the military/police intelligence should, at least, have smelled that something was going on during that ten-day period covering the bombing of PNP headquarters to both mall bombings. That they remained essentially clueless during that entire period means that either they were incredibly stupid or these twenty-six men were incredibly smart and discreet, or there was no plot to begin with.

But let us assume for the moment that indeed there was a plot, involving these twenty-six very smart and discreet men, which miraculously escaped the attention of competent intelligence agents infiltrating the area, then I have another problem.

Having succeeded in implementing their schemes, how was it that these incredibly smart and discreet plotters all of a sudden turned stupid and decided to remain in the area (together) while an investigation was going on? Or were they presumably lulled into a false sense of security by Panfilo Lacson's publicized opinion that the plotters were disgruntled soldiers? How accommodating those plotters were, to stay together for the duration, and thus make it easy for the PNP to swoop down on them all at the same time!

A third problem comes up. Some of those suspects picked up, according to what one reads in the papers, had pretty bad records. How come they weren't picked up earlier, when the Mindanao problems boiled over, if only for preventive purposes? On the other hand, one of the suspects was a Cavite policeman who, according to his colleagues, is a quiet, conscientious man. Is it possible that his only crime is that he is a Muslim?

It would be tragic if this whole situation deteriorated into one continuous witch hunt, with all Muslims being convenient suspects for every misdeed under the sun. As it is, a lot of people out there are convinced that "the only good Moro is a dead Moro."

And then comes the identification problem. Were those suspects picked out of a line-up, or were they presented to the witnesses at the same time that they were presented to the press? Because it is a little difficult to believe that the theater security guard remembered the face of one person among many who carry plastic cups inside the movies. reports, has categorically disclaimed MILF responsibility for the MetroManila bombings. Are we to automatically assume that he is lying through his teeth in this instance, even though the MILF have previously not hesitated to accept responsibility for other attacks?

There is another problem here: If they are accused unjustly, might they not just decide to make the false charges true? And let's face it, when they do decide on terrorist attacks, they're going to maximize damage, not minimize it.

Lastly, I have a problem with the "deception" proudly admitted by PNP's Panfilo Lacson. I will accept that intelligence activities involve a certain amount of deception. But I draw the line at making statements that deceive the public as well. It bespeaks of lack of respect, or even contempt for the public.

Secrecy and confidentiality are one thing. Deception is another. If Lacson didn't want to show his hand, what would have been so hard about saying "No comment," or "We are not at liberty to divulge information at this time?"

This is not acceptable behavior from a public official, let alone a police official. Moreover, it becomes a convenient cover-up for mistakes - next time he makes one, he will have a convenient excuse: It was part of a necessary "deception."

Perhaps, I am being too harsh on Gen. Lacson.

But hey, this is the man who did not hesitate to swear that the Kuratong Baleleng massacre was a shoot-out. This is the man who did not hesitate to implicate the son of one of his enemies (Gen. Alqueza) in the Sarmenta-Gomez murders.

Combine this with too many frame-ups by the police, and you can't blame me for being suspicious. After all, once bitten, twice shy.Solita Collas-Monsod

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June 7, 2000, BusinessWorld, Lockheed Martin begins radar test.

FORT WORTH, Texas - In February, the Lockheed Martin Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) team began radar cross section (RCS) testing of a full-scale aircraft pole model at Lockheed Martin's remote Helendale Measurement Facility in California.

The model known as SigMA (short for Signature Measurement Aircraft) is the culmination of a series of signature demonstrations validating affordability and risk reduction for the next phase of the JSF program Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD).

"The SigMA configuration was developed directly from our Preferred Weapon System Concept design, which continues its strong linkage to our X-35 demonstrator aircraft and will be highly representative of our ENM proposal configuration" said Henry J. Levine, vice-president and deputy for JSF operations.

The planned testing will measure aircraft RCS and the performance of various antennas on the aircraft. Tests also will demonstrate the robustness of supportable low observable (SLO) materials and their ease of repair.

After baseline testing, several doors and panels will be intentionally damaged and later repaired, and RCS measurements will be made to determine the impact of defects and the effectiveness of repairs.

The model's high-fidelity features include removable doors and access panels, canopy transparency, cockpit details, external lights, air data probes, engine components, edges, repositionable control surface, antenna apertures, radar array and a flight-capable radome.

"The high level of detail built into the SigMa model is unprecedented for this stage of development," said Henry J. Sheerer, manager of JSF signature demonstrations. "The SigMA result to date closely match our detailed predictions. By the end of the tests, we expect to qualify our JSF design as low risk in meeting customer survivability requirements."The Helendale facility is a state-of-the-art, world-class RCS test range operated by Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company-Palmdale, a statement said. Lockheed Martin received one of the two JSF Concept Demonstration contracts awarded by the Department of Defense in November 1996.

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June 7, 2000, BusinessWorld, Mindanao dampens consumer confidence.

While there is reason to believe the series of bombings in Metro Manila is a spillover of the fighting in the South, Filipino consumers believe these are not related to the Mindanao conflict.

In a recent consumer confidence survey conducted from May 27 to 29 by Audits and Survey Worldwide (ASW) for BusinessWorld, more than half of the respondents think the spate of bombings in Metro Manila was not perpetrated by Moro rebels.

In particular, 53%, or 159 out of the 300 respondents, said neither the Moro International Liberation Front (MILF) nor the renegade Abu Sayyaf Group is behind the urban bombings.

In fact, only 12.9%, or 39, the respondents pointed to the MILF and 21%, or 63, to Abu Sayyaf as perpetrators of the bombings. Altogether, only about a third of the respondents accept the line that Moro secessionists are behind the violence.

This opinion of Filipino consumers is in stark contrast with the official line taken by the Philippine National Police (PNP) when it arrested 26 suspects who were identified as MILF sympathizers sent to Metro Manila to conduct the bombings.

The bombings, which the police claimed to have been solved with the arrest of the 26 last week, persisted though after another bomb exploded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport over the weekend. Initial investigations, however, point to the possible involvement of disgruntled airport employees.

Since government troops started to assault rebel camps in Mindanao at the start of the year, bombs have been rocking the metropolis.

The first explosion shook Rizal Park in Manila early last month, followed by a grenade blast inside Camp Crame. Then there were the bombings inside Glorietta Mall and SM Megamall, where at least one person died and more than 30 others wounded.

With Mindanao hostilities still unresolved, the consumer confidence index stayed at low levels, though it showed some modest improvement from the previous month. Overall consumer confidence, which reflected opinions on the present state of the economy as well as consumer expectations for the future, slightly climbed to 83.6 index points for May from 82.5 points last April.

Before the slight upturn in May, consumer confidence had been in a downtrend since the start of the year. Overall consumer confidence index stood at 101.5 points in January; it then tumbled to 85.7 points in February, and slid further to 82.9 in March.

Based on the survey results, more consumers felt the business situation in the country remains unfavorable. Specifically, four out of 10 consumers polled said the present business situation is bad while only two felt it is doing well. The rest were undecided.

Out of 300 interviewed, nearly half, or 134, believe the government is doing a worse job compared with last year, and 111, or 37.1%, said the government is neither doing a better or worse job at this point. Only 55, or 18.2%, lauded the government's recent moves.

The poor government performance rating came out as Filipino consumers grew impatient with the long-drawn Abu Sayyaf hostage crisis and continuous armed clashes with the MILF.

Government negotiations with Abu Sayyaf representatives have yet to bear constructive results as the rebel group is demanding for an independent Islamic state and a commission to investigate the treatment of Filipino Muslims in Sabah.

On the other hand, military troops have been overrunning different MILF satellite camps, but has yet to take control of Camp Abubakar, the rebels' main stronghold.

As this developed, the present situation index, which indicates consumers' perception of the present business condition and current government accomplishments, remained stable at 84.4 index points from 84.2 index points in the previous month.

On a more positive note, household income is seen to rise in the near future, with the survey result showing 28.9% of the consumers believing household income for the next six months will pick up. This is an improvement from the corresponding 21.7% proportion in the previous month. Conversely, those who believe income will drop shrank to 22.5% from 28.7% in April, while those who said income will remain the same stood at 48.6%.

On the other hand, most consumers remain glum about the economic prospects, with 35.3% of the respondents feeling the economy will worsen in the next six months. Only 29.3% said they believe it will improve. Thus, even as optimists increased by 7.5 percentage points to 29.3% in May from 21.8% in the previous month, pessimists increased by a larger 9.5 percentage points to 35.3% from 25.8%.

The country's first-quarter economic growth was recorded at 3.4%, below the government's 3.8% to 4.2% target for the period. In a recent report, the country's top economists said the government's full-year 4% growth target might be hampered if the Mindanao problem is not resolved soon.

With economic activity expected to slow down the rest of the year, consumers' outlook on employment is also depressed. About six out of every 10 consumers believe it would be more difficulty to find jobs in the coming six months, while only one of 10 said there would be more jobs available. The rest said employment opportunities would more or less be the same.

The future expectation index, which takes into account the consumers' prospects on employment, household income, and the economy, grew to 83.1% in May from 81.5% in April.

Meanwhile, about half of the consumers surveyed believe the value of peso will continue to plunge in the next six months. Only 20.4%, or two out of every 10 consumers, said the peso value will improve, and 29.3%, or about three out of 10, said it would remain at the same level.

(The Consumer Confidence Index is a joint project of BusinessWorld and Audits & Surveys Worldwide , an international marketing, media and public opinion research firm based in New York. Established in 1953, ASW serves commercial, industrial, financial, legal, institutional, government and academic client in over 80 countries. ASW has regional centers in New York, London, Buenos Aires and Manila. Its Manila office started operations as the regional center for Asia-Pacific in 1997 and conducts research across the region including China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.)

BW-ASW Consumer Confidence Index

29-May 28 Apr 25 Mar. 26 Feb. 28 Jan. '00

Present Situation Index 84.4 84.2 83.8 91.0 105.0

Future Expectations Index 83.1 81.5 82.4 82.4 99.4

Consumer Confidence Index 83.6 82.5 82.9 85.7 101.5

Present Situation 77.6 77.4 77.0 83.7 96.5

Future Expectations 84.6 83.0 83.9 83.9 101.2

Consumer Confidence 81.8 80.7 81.1 83.8 99.3

Current business condition is...

29-May 28 Apr 25 Mar. 26 Feb. 28 Jan. '00

Good 23.2% 26.6% 21.4% 22.8% 29.9%

Bad 41.6% 42.3% 36.5% 34.7% 29.6%

Neither 35.2% 31.1% 42.0% 42.5% 40.5%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0% Score -18.4 -15.7% -15.1% -11.9% 0.3%

PSI Weight 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

Compared last year, government is doing a...

29-May 28 Apr 25 Mar. 26 Feb. 28 Jan. '00

Better job 18.2% 13.0% 16.3% 20.5% 14.6%

Worse job 44.6% 42.5% 47.2% 41.3% 21.9%

Neither 37.1% 44.5% 36.5% 38.2% 63.5%

Can't say - - - - -

Total 99.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Score -26.4 -29.5% -30.9% -20.8% -7.3%

PSI Weight 50% 50% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%

In the next 6 months, the economy will...

29-May 28 Apr 25 Mar. 26 Feb. 28 Jan. '00

Improve 29.3% 21.8% 22.7% 28.0% 28.3%

Worsen 35.3% 25.8% 27.9% 32.6% 15.0%

Neither 34.9% 52.4% 49.4% 39.4% 56.7%

Can't say 0.0% - - - -

Total 99.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Score -6.0 -4.0% -5.2% -4.6% 13.3%

FEI Weight 40% 40% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%

In the next 6 months, jobs will be...

29-May 28 Apr 25 Mar. 26 Feb. 28 Jan. '00

Plentiful 12.2% 11.1% 14.6% 13.5% 12.8%

More difficult 61.8% 55.5% 63.3% 76.3% 36.0%

Same 26.0% 33.4% 22.1% 10.2% 51.2%

Can't say - - - - -

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Score -49.6 -44.4% -48.7% -62.8% -23.2%

FEI Weight 30% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%

In the next 6 months, household income will...

29-May 28 Apr 25 Mar. 26 Feb. 28 Jan. '00

Increase 28.9% 21.7% 26.6% 33.1% 26.2%

Decrease 22.5% 28.7% 24.6% 17.7% 16.8%

Same 48.6% 49.6% 48.8% 49.2% 57.0%

Can't say - - - - -

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Score 6.4 -7.0% 2.0% 15.4% 9.4%

FEI Weight 30% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%

In the next 6 months, stock market will...

29-May 28 Apr 25 Mar. 26 Feb. 28 Jan. '00

Improve 22.9% 16.3% 26.1% 31.8% 19.7%

Decrease 38.1% 36.4% 33.6% 26.3% 20.2%

Same 38.6% 47.2% 40.3% 41.9% 60.1%

Can't say - - - - -

Score -15.2 -20.1% -7.5% 5.5% -0.5%

In the next 6 months, the peso will...

29-May 28 Apr 25 Mar. 26 Feb. 28 Jan. '00

Improve 20.4% 13.2% 26.3% 22.9% 22.5%

Decrease 50.3% 49.2% 39.1% 37.3% 30.0%

Same 29.3% 37.6% 34.6% 39.8% 47.6%

Can't say - - - - -

Score -29.9 -36.0% -12.8% -14.4% -7.5%

Source: Audits & Surveys Worldwide

What Groups are Behind the Metro Manila bombings

% MILF 12.9

ABUSAYYAF 21

NPA/ABB 4.7

Anti-Cha Cha Grps 4.9

RAM boys 3.5

None of the above 53

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June 19, 2000, BusinessWorld, Moro rebels accuse Armed Forces of shelling civilian homes in camp,

Moro rebels in Maguindanao claimed yesterday the military destroyed mostly civilian homes during its continuous shelling of Camp Abubakar.

In a telephone interview, Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) committee on cessation of hostilities chairman Eid Kabalu also belied military claims that it will not touch Camp Abubakar without direct presidential orders.

Abubakar is the main stronghold in Maguindanao of the MILF, the bigger of two groups fighting for an independent Islamic state in Mindanao.

"Halos wala na yung mga bahay doon (Almost all the house are gone.) But we were able to have the civilians evacuated as early as the start of the fightings - In the past three days, they (government troops) have been bombarding us with their artillery weapons," Mr. Kabalu said.

"(It is not true) that they are not attacking Camp Abubakar," he added.

The MILF official noted that prior to the military offensives on Camp Abubakar, some 10,000 civilians were living inside the camp, which sprawls over a 3,000-hectare area in Maguindanao.

Only underground bunkers and tunnels have been left undamaged by military artillery fire, Mr. Kabalu said.

He also said MILF leaders, including MILF chairman Hashim Salamat and vice-chairman for military affairs Al Haj Murad, are still in Camp Abubakar.

Mr. Kabalu also said four soldiers were killed when government troops attempted anew to break into Camp Abubakar on Saturday. Government troops retreated after facing stiff resistance from MILF guerillas.

In the interview, Mr. Kabalu also said heavy fighting is still ongoing near MILF's Camp Rajah Muda in North Cotabato as the military attempts to overrun the MILF camp.

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June 20, 2000, BusinessWorld, Bombing suspects cry foul, (26 suspects in bombing of two shopping malls)

The lawyer for nine of 26 suspects in the bombing of two shopping malls in Metro Manila claimed yesterday his clients were mauled by policemen to make them confess to the crime. Human rights lawyer Romeo Capulong said those mauled were Abdulah Butuan, Abdulaji Mangco, Tonqui Janil, Santiago Canlungan, Akmad Abdul, Bryan Alpha, Ali Trique Tantalie, Noel Mamaluba and Abash Sinumandal. The nine all stay in one cell at the Presidential Anti-Organized Crime Task Force (PAOCTF) detention area. He added, "We are holding (national police chief) General (Panfilo) Lacson responsible for this," Mr. Capulong told reporters at the PAOCTF office.

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June 21, 2000, BusinessWorld, Military limits Mindanao clashes to two rebel areas,

Clashes between government troops and Moro rebels are now confined to two rebel camp areas in Central Mindanao, the military said yesterday.

Fightings are now limited to Camp Abubakar in Maguindanao and Camp Rajamuda in North Cotabato, military spokesman colonel Hilario Atendido said.

He also said the activities of Moro rebels belonging to the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) are limited to these two areas.

"We can say that we have effectively contained the situation in Mindanao...We have not seen a massing of their troops and they could not even sustain fire fights to last over an hour," Mr. Atendido told BusinessWorld in a telephone interview.

MILF is the bigger of two rebel groups in Mindanao now fighting for an independent Islamic state in the country, which is predominantly Roman Catholic.

Camp Abubakar in Maguindanao is MILF's main stronghold. Camp Rajamuda is one of many other MILF camps in Mindanao.

Mr. Atendido, spokesman of the military's Southern Command - which has jurisdiction over Mindanao island, also claims most MILF satellite camps are now in government control.

MILF guerrillas trooped to Camp Abubakar after the military overran their camps. But even Abubakar is now surrounded by some 4,000 government troops, in an effort to confine the rebels there.

Since starting offensives in March, the military claims to have overrun 22 major and satellite MILF camps - including camps John Mack, Bilal, Omar, Bushra, Mohammed Al Fateh, and Sarmiento.

Also, due to recent hostilities, MILF troop size was cut down to only 8,000 from an estimated high of 15,000 troops.

The military is beefing up security forces in southern shores after receiving reports that Moro rebels are expecting a shipment of high-powered firearms from North Korea.

Military intelligence service chief lieutenant general Jose Calimlim, citing "raw" intelligence reports, said the North Korean Communist Kuomintang has committed to shipping, among others, anti-aircraft and anti-tank missles to MILF.

"The intelligence community is on the alert monitoring the arrival of the arms shipment through the southern Philippine back door... The (military) is now on the alert to apprehend the shipment upon its arrival in Philippine shores," Mr. Calimlim said in an interview.

"The North Korean arms shipment is a big one as it covers anti-tank and anti-aircraft missles. That's the order they made with the arms dealer. MILF is really bent on procuring these weapons because... as of the moment, the MILF has no answer to our air strikes," he added.

Mr. Calimlim said MILF deputy vice-chairman for military affairs Salih Balamul met with North Korean leader as well as alleged Malaysian arms dealer Sasmuan Bin Akmad in Malaysia last May 16 to arrange for the shipment.

The meeting was held after Mr. Balamul reportedly received, also in Malaysia, $3 million in financial aid from an Arab terrorist leader on May 6, Mr. Calimlim said.

The high-powered firearms are now in a warehouse in Pyongyang, he added. He did not say when the shipment is expected to arrive, or how much it costs.

Southern Command's colonel Atendido said government troops are securing all possible entry points for the arms shipment.

It was reported a week ago that during the "first week of June," a shipment of high-powered firearms for Moro rebels landed in Davao City from Vietnam.

Meanwhile, Palace spokesmen insist that the military will never overrun Camp Abubakar as a symbol of its good faith in negotiating peace with Moro rebels.

Add to this the fact that the rebel camp is surrounded by towns teeming with civilians, Press Undersecretary Mike Toledo said yesterday.

"The government will not touch Camp Abubakar. Negotiations will continue," he told a forum at the Westin Philippine Plaza in Pasay City.

But for Press Undersecretary Antonio Seva, the restraint on attacking the camp is a matter of "military tactics." "You don't just attack the main camp. You usually start with satellite camps as a military tactic," he told the forum.

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June 23, 2000, BusinessWorld, MILF won't abandon bid to establish Islamic state (Despite Estrada threat of all-out war)

The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) will never abandon its bid to establish an independent Islamic state in Mindanao.

This is despite President Joseph Estrada's threat to order an all-out military offensive on MILF camps, an MILF official said yesterday.

The MILF will never let the government curtail its bid for independence from the National Government, MILF committee on cessation of hostilities chairman Eid Kabalu said.

"We do not entertain the idea of signing their (government's) interim agreement. First, because they are limiting the Bangsamoro in their call for independence," Mr. Kabalu told BusinessWorld.

Mr. Kabalu also claimed MILF is not involoved in terrorist activities, contrary to the government's accusation.

Meanwhile, the MILF official said MILF representatives now in Malaysia will attend the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) meeting in Kuala Lumpur from June 27 to 29.

Mr. Kabalu said he remains confident MILF will be granted an "observer status" by OIC.

Meanwhile, the government needs just over P105 million to rehabilitate areas in Mindanao affected by recent hostilities between government troops and Moro rebels, Defense Secretary Orlando S. Mercado said yesterday.

In a press briefing, Mr. Mercado said the cost of rehabilitating conflict-affected areas, estimated at P105.6 million, will come from the government's calamity funds.

"Well, budget for this will come from the calamity fund and from the President. It still depends on DBM (Department of Budget and Management), but it has placed this as one of its priorities," Mr. Mercado said.

He also said some P24.8 million is needed to repair damaged portions of Narciso Ramos Highway. In a report, National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) said 64 kilometers of the 130-kilometer highway was damaged during clashes in Mindanao.

Last April 29, the military started its clearing operation against MILF rebels who established satellite camps along the highway, which connects Cotabato and Marawi cities.

NDCC also said P20.3 million is needed to provide "core shelter materials" for residents who fled from fightings.

NDCC noted 1,299 houses - mostly in Lanao del Norte and Sur and Maguindanao - were damaged during clashes.

As of June 20, about 308,000 persons from 59,499 families have been displaced by the military's war versus Moro rebels.

Meanwhile, another P20 million is needed to rebuild damaged public utilities, while P14 million will go to the rebuilding of damaged schools. Another P15 million is needed for the dispersal of livestock and farm animals.

Mr. Mercado also said it would take NDCC and other government agencies around six months to complete relief efforts, while it may take up to a year to rebuild damaged infrastructure.

In the briefing, Mr. Mercado also said the Armed Forces has, at this moment, "substantially achieved" its military objectives in Mindanao.

He noted government troops on the island have captured most of the MILF camps.

And government troops continue to gain headway in their attempt to overrun MILF's Camp Rajahmuda in North Cotabato, he added.

Rajahmuda is one of two camps - the other one is Camp Abubakar in Maguindanao - still controlled by MILF. Both camps are now surrounded by government troops.

"By this time, we have substantially achieved our military objectives," Mr. Mercado said.

As this developed, a member of the government panel negotiating peace with the MILF is quitting in protest over Malacanang's total war policy versus Moro rebels.

Maguindanao Rep. Didagen P. Dilangalen said many Muslims in Mindanao are disappointed with the government's policies against MILF rebels.

"Magri-resign ako sa GRP panel sa June 30. Hindi na ako naniniwala sa policy ng government dahil all-out war na ang government. (I will resign from the government peace panel on June 30. I don't believe in the government's all-out war policy)," he said in a telephone interview.

Mr. Dilangalen also noted the lack of coordination in government policy. He noted the government panel is assigned to talk peace with the MILF, yet the military continues to launch offensives against the rebels.

He also said the Cabinet Cluster E on national security should replace the government peace panel, since its members are the ones drafting government policies in the MILF talks.

Mr. Dilangalen also said Mr. Estrada is making a big mistake in pursuing a military solution to the Mindanao conflict.

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June 23, 2000, BusinessWorld, North Korea-MILF arms deal report not 'low-level', says Orly,

Defense Secretary Orlando S. Mercado came short of confirming yesterday that high-powered firearms are set to be shipped to Moro rebels in Mindanao by a supplier from North Korea.

In a press briefing, Mr. Mercado also said that the planned arms shipment, if true, is a serious threat to national security.

"As far as we are concerned, it is a serious matter ," he told reporters at his office in Camp Aguinaldo, Quezon City.

Mr. Mercado also said the intelligence report on the shipment, which he claims was prematurely disclosed by the military to the public, is not "low-level information."

Several days ago, the chief of military intelligence said the Armed Forces is beefing up security in southern shores given reports that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) is expecting high-powered firearms from North Korea.

Lt. Gen. Jose Calimlim, also Armed Forces vice-chief, claimed the arms were bought with the $3-million aid MILF received from wealthy Arab businessman and alleged terrorist financier Osama Bin Laden about two weeks ago.

The money was supposedly for food and medicine for Moro rebels and their families.

Mr. Mercado said the intelligence report, made public by Mr. Calimlim, will be taken up by Cabinet Cluster Enthe Cabinet group on national security and foreign security.

He also said that the Department of National Defense will let the Department of Foreign Affairs address the diplomatic implications of the arms shipment.

In the briefing, Mr. Mercado also reiterated his instruction for the military to first clear all intelligence reports with Cabinet Cluster E before these are made public.

Meanwhile, a Palace official said President Joseph Estrada is "upset" over contradicting statements by ranking officials on the North Korea issue.

The official, requesting anonymity, said the President is short of peeved at Mr. Calimlim, Intelligence Service of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (ISAFP) chief.

"Medyo upset si Presidente. Uncomfortable siya dahil hindi pare-pareho ang statements. (The President is rather upset. He is uncomfortable because of contradicting statements on the issue)," the official said.

"The President's message was for the officials to be more careful in what they say publicly because it is susceptible to some misinterpretation - and for them to consider their statements' implications on diplomatic relations," the official added.

Mr. Calimlim, now the number two man in the military, has been censured by Mr. Mercado for making public the intelligence report on the North Korea-MILF arms deal.

But at the Palace, Press Secretary Ricardo V. Puno, Jr. said Mr. Calimlim denied having categorically mentioned North Korea as the source of arms for MILF.

"He (Mr. Calimlim) told me this morning that he did not identify North Korea as a potential source of this information," Mr. Puno said. He added Mr. Calimlim also explained himself to Foreign Affairs Secretary Domingo L. Siazon, Jr.

Still, Mr. Puno said, the government would like to hear a clarification from North Korea in the next few days.

MILF is the bigger of two rebel groups in Mindanao fighting for an independent Islamic state in the Philippines, a predominantly Roman Catholic country.

Meanwhile, the North Cotabato government called on MILF to stop waging war against the government.

The call was made by North Cotabato governor Manuel Pinol and provincial board member Bai Farida Pendatun, second cousin of MILF chairman Hashim Salamat.

"The Moro people are tired of fighting a war that promises nothing but hardship and even death," Ms. Pendatun said in a statement she read in Malacanang.

She noted that part of her duties is to take care of about 40,000 evacuees from Pikit, North Cotabato, displaced by clashes between government troops and Moro rebels.

"The Muslim civilians do not really understand about the Islamic state the MILF would like to establish in Mindanao. Many of the women in the evacuation centers do not even understand why their husbands and their sons are being made to fight against the government," Ms. Pendatun said.

"It is because of this that I am making this appeal to the MILF: Please stop this senseless war you are waging against the government. Stop the meaningless sacrifice of human lives for a revolution that is not even understood by our people," she added.

Ms. Pendatun and Mr. Pinol was part of a group from North Cotabato which called on the President on Wednesday.

During their meeting with the President, Mr. Pinol said Mr. Estrada directed him to draft a comprehensive plan for the rehabilitation of North Cotabato, one of the provinces severely affected by clashes.

Mr. Pinol said the President also approved P500 million in projects for his province.

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June 27, 2000, BusinessWorld, Abu Sayyaf rebels demand release of Filipino prisoner (85-year-old man),

JOLO, Sulu - Moro rebels holding 20 mostly foreign hostages on this island demanded yesterday the release of a man in a Malaysian prison but did not directly link it to the freeing of their captives.

Galib Andang, one of the leaders of the Abu Sayyaf guerrillas, said in a taped message that the rebels wanted the release of an 85-year-old Filipino man named Mohamed Aklam being held in prison in Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia.

There were no immediate details on who the man was or why he was being held. Mr. Andang did not link the demand to the release of any of the hostages.

The taped message was brought to Jolo by a medical team which examined the Malaysian and Filipino hostages at the rebels' lair, some 15 kilometers from Jolo town.

The doctors' trip to the camp was the first by a medical group since June 10, when the kidnappers made new demands for the release of their captives, forcing Manila to suspend negotiations. No date has been fixed for the resumption of talks.

The rebels released a Malaysian forest ranger last week but are still holding eight other Malaysians, three Germans, two French nationals, two South Africans, two Finns, two Filipinos and a Lebanese.

They were kidnapped from a Malaysian diving resort last April 23 and brought to this rugged island 960 kilometers south of Metro Manila.

The medical team was allowed to treat only the Malaysian and Filipino hostages, doctors who went into the hills above Jolo town said. The other hostages are believed to be held about one kilometer away to prevent chances of a military raid.

"Our condition and medical supplies here are enough but every now and then someone is getting sick," Fong Yin Ken, another of the Malaysian hostages, said in the taped message.

He added in a message to Zulkarnain bin Hashim, the hostage released last week: "Welcome home and do not forget about us. Pray for us and do whatever you can for our peaceful release."

Mr. Zulkarnain was released in what officials described as a goodwill gesture. They said no ransom was paid.

Mr. Andang, the rebel chief, said: "The one we released was a staunch believer of Islam. In the name of Malaysia and Allah, it's not true that the government paid ransom. We are swearing to God that there is no ransom paid and we have released the hostage because he is a Muslim."

The Abu Sayyaf and the bigger rebel group Moro Islamic Liberation Front are fighting for an independent Muslim homeland in Mindanao.

Earlier, Sulu governor Abusakur Tan rejected a request by six evangelists from the Jesus Miracle Crusade for permission to go to the Abu Sayyaf camp to see the hostages but told them in a meeting yesterday, "You can go there at your own risk."

A spokesman for the bible group told reporters: "We will go even if we are not permitted. We will not preach but will offer a gospel of prayer."

The presence of Christian missionaries in Moro communities, including Jolo, has angered the rebels, who have demanded a stop to the building of crosses in their area.

Doctors from the Malaysian Red Crescent and a local hospital rode in a convoy to the Abu Sayyaf camp.

Filipina doctor Nelsa Amin said her orders from Mr. Tan was to see only the Malaysian and Filipino hostages.

"I am unhappy because we cannot reach the European group right now - There is no order to reach them," Ms. Amin told reporters before leaving for the Talipao jungles.

The doctors' trip to the rebel camp was the first by a medical group since June 10, when the Abu Sayyaf made new demands for the release of their captives.

Hostages had told reporters that despondency over their long captivity was driving some of them to thoughts of suicide.

Meanwhile, Senate President Franklin M. Drilon ruled out amnesty for Abu Sayyaf members even if they release all their hostages without conditions.

"I don't think we should grant them amnesty because amnesty is premised on the proposition that the acts were committed in pursuit of political beliefs," he told a press briefing.

The Senate chief also cautioned government negotiators on including on the hostage negotiation agenda the issue of expanding the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.

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June 27, 2000, BusinessWorld, They express conditions for freeing Basilan hostages,

Moro rebels in Basilan province are demanding for changes in public school regulations in exchange for the release of three hostages, the regional police office said yesterday.

The Abu Sayyaf rebels want public schools in Sulu to hire more Muslim teachers, the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao Police Regional Office based in Maguindanao said in a report to the national police headquarters in Camp Crame, Quezon City.

The rebels are also demanding for the compulsory wearing of veils by Muslim students in Sulu as well as a stop to Christmas parties and proms in public schools there.

The demands were made during the rebels' meeting with school teachers last June 23, to determine the condition of three hostages - two school teachers and a teenaged student.

The report states that Department of Education, Culture and Sports superintendent Hadja Amy Malbun and several school teachers received the demands from Abu Sayyaf commanders Randullah Sahiron and Abdulasis during the meeting at Bgy. Igasan, Patikul, Sulu.

It also states "the teachers verified the status/whereabouts of the remaining hostages."

Police said Ms. Malbun and several teachers were set to return to Patikul yesterday to meet with Abu Sayyaf leaders again. But the military could not confirm whether the meeting took place.

The Abu Sayyaf abducted some 70 teachers and students from two schools in Sumisip, Basilan last March 20.

Since then, four of the hostages have been killed - including a Catholic priest. Others were abandoned after the military raided the rebels' camp in an attempt to rescue the hostages.

Many have also been released in exchange for food and clothing. A few weeks ago, the rebels released five more children to presidential adviser Roberto Aventajado in Sulu.

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June 29, 2000, BusinessWorld, Leftists kill two officers, 11 soldiers in Isabela,

Two Army officers and 11 soldiers were killed by communist rebels in an ambush in Jones, Isabela, on Tuesday, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) said yesterday.

AFP said two civilians were also wounded when leftist New People's Army (NPA) members ambushed the Army convoy which escorted a medical mission.

The officials killed were 502nd Brigade commander Colonel Josephino Manayao and 54th Army infantry batallion commander 2nd Lieutenant Wilfredo Estanislao.

Their military convoy had escorted a medical team on a mission at Bgy. Dicamay in Jones town.

But during their return from the mission and on their way to an Army detachment in Jones, the convoy's truck was damaged by a land mine.

After the land mine explosion, rebels fired at the convoy.

Armed Forces chief of staff General Angelo T. Reyes flew to Isabela yesterday to "assess the situation."

Earlier, Mr. Reyes denounced the attack, saying NPA rebels are now intensifying attacks while the military focuses on insurgency in Mindanao.

It was the bloodiest communist attack in recent months.

NPA has been fighting for a Marxist state in the Philippines for more than 30 years.

A son of President Joseph Estrada survived but three people were killed when NPA rebels last month ambushed a party of local officials aboard a boat crossing a river north of Manila.

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June 30, 2000, BusinessWorld, Fast Forward: Bombed out. OV-10 bombs carpeting the MILF "camps",

What happens when an OV-10 bomb, the type they're carpeting the MILF "camps" with, drops on your backyard?

According to friends who joined the recent fact-finding mission organized by Kalinaw Mindanao, the OV-10 bomb creates a crater 20 feet wide and 10 feet deep. That's enough space for an entire house in those parts to fit in.

In the crater, nothing is left but pulverized earth. It smells too, and residents attest the soil continues to emit smoke a week after the explosion.

Around the crater is complete chaos. Everything is destroyed. The impact is so great that houses are literally blown away by the scalding mix of fire and hot gas. Wooden houses come apart, burnt and splintered like matchsticks. Metal roof-tops fly away and get twisted from the force and heat of the blast.

All but the foundations and strong walls remain of the concrete houses, plus the exposed steel bars with pieces of concrete still left hanging like the beads of a rosary. Everything else is reduced to rubble and dust.

Bombs that fall on the fields destroy hectares of crops. The plants either get burned, uprooted or flattened. Residents do not dare eat the remaining crops for fear of being poisoned by the bomb's chemicals.

A 105mm howitzer shell, or an 81mm rocket-propelled grenade or mortar makes less damage but is equally terrifying. They make gaping holes in the roof, and mini-craters inside homes. The shrapnels fly in all directions, blasting away entire houses.

Residents in Central Mindanao flee at the sight of OV-10 bombers hovering in the air, or when they hear the howitzers firing away. Parents run around gathering their screaming children and farm animals. In the confusion, sometimes one or two kids are left behind.

It's sheer terror, they told my friends, just hearing the bombs explode from the safety of the evacuation center or the forest where they run for cover.

Compared to such powerful bombs, the homemade stuff that went off at the Glorietta, ShoeMart, Davao city and General Santos city are peanuts.

No wonder the AFP meets little resistance when they finally enter the so-called camps which they first bombard with OV-10 bombs, howitzers and mortars. By that time, everyone, rebels and civilians included, would have left the area.

Entire villages are reduced to a field of panggatong when the soldiers arrive and hoist the Philippine flag and shoot their souvenir pictures. There is nothing to go back to for the residents. No house, no farm, no peace of mind knowing you are home. ***

Today, members of Kalinaw Mindanao and the Coalition for Peace join hands in calling for an end to the bloodshed and a stop to the government's all-out war approach in Mindanao.

Everyone is invited to attend an inter-faith rally at Plaza Miranda, Quiapo, from 1-3 p.m., followed by a march to Mendiola bridge.

Speakers will include Bishop Deogracias Yniguez, former Congressman Michael Mastura, Amira Lidasan of the Moro Christian People's Alliance (MCPA), Iya Agubon of Kids for Peace, and Senators Aquilino Pimentel and Teofisto Guingona.

In their joint statement, Kalinaw Mindanao and the Coalition for Peace are calling on President Joseph Estrada to drop the June 30 deadline, including preconditions for the peace negotiations, so that a more comprehensive and long-term solution to the conflict can be achieved.

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June 30, 2000, BusinessWorld, Peace agreement hangs as talks reach deadline (Gov't negotiations with MILF)

The government decides today whether it will extend its deadline for peace negotiations with Moro rebels belonging to the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).

Press Secretary Ricardo V. Puno, Jr. said the Palace is keeping open options on the matter. President Joseph Estrada earlier set a June 30 deadline for peace negotiations.

In a briefing at the Palace, Mr. Puno also said Malacanang is monitoring developments in the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) Foreign Ministers meeting in Kuala Lumpur, which also ends today.

National Security Adviser Alexander P. Aguirre and former Executive Secretary Ruben Torres are holding informal talks with MILF officials on the sidelines of the OIC meeting. MILF is campaigning for recognition before the 56-country OIC.

"If the deadline is not reached, then the President is free to act in any way that he wants to act. If the deadline is not met then, he has several options: He can examine the situation and decide to let it go for a couple of days or maybe even agree to the July 28 deadline," Mr. Puno said.

"But if the President feels that there is no reasonable expectation that any of the requests he has made will be agreed to by the MILF, then he has all the options that he can exercise as the head of this country," he added.

He also said the government and the MILF are still finalizing an interim agreement that will provide for the extension of the talks.

The President said earlier he will extend the deadline for talks if the MILF agrees to drop its secessionist demand and stop all terrorist and criminal activities.

"Those remain the instructions and if the interim agreement drafts do not incorporate that language, it will be a problem. The language with respect to abandoning secessionist moves must be clear and unequivocal," Mr. Puno said.

"He (Estrada) has said if certain conditions will be met, he can flex on that deadline... But if there is nothing forthcoming insofar as those principals are concerned, then we go back to where we where before which is the government considers itself free to take whatever action it needs to take to pre-serve this country," he added.

Mr. Puno also said the government remains optimistic of a breakthrough by today.

MILF senior officials led by MILF vice-chairman for political affairs Ghadzali Jaafar are in Malaysia to get OIC's support, and reportedly to raise $15 million from OIC members.

Mr. Puno also said the government has clarified with OIC the language of a draft resolution on Muslims in Mindanao.

Paragraph 15 of the draft resolution "urges the Government of the Republic of the Philippines to immediately halt its military offensive against the Bangsamoro people and reach a peaceful solution to the existing problem in Mindanao."

Paragraph 16, meanwhile, "appeals" to all Islamic charitable organizations in OIC member states to extend medical and other humanitarian assistance to the displace people who are victims of violence in Mindanao.

But Mr. Puno said there is no need to call for a cease-fire since there are no more military offensives in Mindanao.

He also said the military has completed its objective of neutralizing MILF's military strength by taking over its camps.

Meanwhile, Mr. Puno said the President will chair the proposed Cabinet-level Mindanao Coordinating Committee that will oversee the overall development of southern Philippines.

He said the new body will also oversee the implementation of projects to be funded from $330 million in overseas development assistance committed by other countries.

With the OIC resolution, Moro rebels are expecting the military to scale down offensives against them.

In a telephone interview, MILF committee on cessation of hostilities chairman Eid Kabalu said MILF already secured the assurance of an OIC secretariat member on the resolution's approval.

"We were assured by one of the members of the OIC secretariat that they will be signing a resolution to urge the Philippine government to stop its all-out attack against the MILF and to go back to the negotiating table and pursue a political solution to the problem," Mr. Kabalu told BusinessWorld.

While such a resolution is not binding on the Philippine government, failure to comply with it may impact on RP diplomatic ties with OIC members, he added.

He noted that in the last three days, the military continuously shelled and bombed Camp Abubakar - MILF's only remaining camp - in Maguindanao.

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June 30, 2000, BusinessWorld, Abu seen releasing hostages.

Government negotiators expect Abu Sayyaf members in Jolo, Sulu, to release more hostages "within the next two days," a military official said yesterday.

Quoting Sulu governor Abdusakur Tan, Armed Forces of the Philippines Southern Command spokesman commander Bernaro R. Pinpin said government negotiators and Moro rebel leaders are now discussing the possible release.

Mr. Tan is a member of the government panel negotiating with the Abu Sayyaf for the release of 20 mostly foreign hostages held on Jolo island.

"Governor Tan told me, they are expecting the possible release of some of the hostages within the next two days," Mr. Pinpin told BusinessWorld in a telephone interview.

On April 23, the Abu Sayyaf abducted nine Malaysians, three Germans, two French nationals, two South Africans, two Finns, two Filipinos and a Lebanese from Sipadan island resort in Malaysia and then took them to Jolo.

One of the 21 hostages, a Malaysian, was released last Saturday.

In Kuala Lumpur, Islamic nations meeting in Malaysia's capital have not formally discussed the two-month-old hostage crisis, Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar said.

"I think it would be difficult for us now to allow kidnapping and abduction to take a political dimension," he told a news conference in Kuala Lumpur, where a meeting of foreign ministers of the Organization of Islamic Conference is taking place.

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StevenWarRan Research

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

June 2000, BusinessWorld

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